Monsoon Forecast: Flash Floods, heavy rains expected in July: NDMA alert

Monsoon Forecast: The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has issued a comprehensive alert regarding potential flash floods, landslides, and other severe weather conditions expected to affect various regions of Pakistan throughout July.

In an official statement released on Monday, the NDMA’s National Emergencies Operation Center (NEOC) highlighted a detailed monsoon forecast predicting heavy and light rainfall patterns across the country, with specific warnings for different weeks and regions.

Key Highlights of the Forecast:

• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP): Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in Mardan, Malakand, and Hazara divisions during the 4th week of July, potentially leading to flooding.
• Punjab and Islamabad: Lahore, Sargodha, Faisalabad, and Gujranwala districts, along with Islamabad, are expected to receive 15-50mm of rainfall in the 1st and 2nd weeks of July. Later in the 4th week, these areas may face flooding, while hill torrents in DG Khan and moderate to heavy rains in Sahiwal, Multan, and Bahawalpur are also anticipated.
• Sindh: Karachi, Hyderabad, and other districts like Mirpurkhas, Nawabshah, Larkana, and Sukkur could experience 30-75mm of rainfall throughout July, with heavy to very heavy rains expected in the 2nd and 4th weeks, posing risks of flooding.
• Gilgit Baltistan and AJK: Astore District and isolated areas of Azad Jammu and Kashmir are likely to witness heavy to very heavy rainfall in the 4th week of July, potentially leading to severe flooding in nullahs and rivers.

The forecast also cautioned about the possibility of riverine and flash flooding, urban flooding, landslides in hilly areas, and potential Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) due to the anticipated rainfall intensities.

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Preventive Measures and Preparedness:

In response to the forecast, the NDMA has advised Provincial Disaster Management Authorities (PDMAs), District Disaster Management Authorities (DDMAs), and relevant departments to remain vigilant and preparedduring Monsoon. Pre-placement of machinery and ensuring the availability of staff in vulnerable areas have been emphasized.

Local authorities are urged to sensitize residents living near riverbanks and nullahs, ensuring they are aware of increased water flows and facilitating timely evacuation where necessary. Citizens are advised to exercise extreme caution, avoid electric poles and weak infrastructure, and refrain from driving or walking through waterways during heavy rains.